More on US public debt

Here’s an impressive infographic by the Chicago Tribune, on the national debt of the United States, 1940-2010.

Found via Visualizing Economics.

The socialist within

It’s Friday night in this side of the Western hemisphere, so, what the heck. I think you might find it funny. Here’s a bit of U. S. public debt history.

Does the average tea-party fan know better?

Found via The Big Picture.

Caporale T. and Grier K. (2000) On why the sheriff still matters

Caporale, Tony and Kevin B. Grier (2000) Political Regime Change and the Real Interest Rate, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 32/3: 320-334.

Intro

A number of influential macroeconomic models, from Keynes to the monetarists, assume that real interest rates (i.e. discounted for inflation) change over time and are sensitive to their political environment, other words that they are policy variant. However this assumption has not been empirically tested, should this assumption be in fact contradicted, it would have important repercussions on these models’ viability. Moreover, the policy-variant hypothesis apparently conflicts with Eugene Fama’s conclusion that the mean of the real rate is essentially constant (p.322). The literature has found to match Fama’s views more closely with reality: real interest rates are “essentially constant over long periods of times but subject to infrequent mean shifts that are not related to policy regime changes”.

On cognitive functions interrupted (and the growth of two retail corporations in the US)

I haven’t been able to write much since the equivalent of a permanent shock affected my production function as well as its slope (break ups are always hard, being the dumpee is even worse, in the long run we are all dead).

I’m slowly regaining use of my cognitive functions. For I don’t want to leave Ben alone in this blog any longer, I thought of posting two maps showing the growth of two retail corporations in the US: Wal Mart (1962-2006) and Target (1962-2008).

This might interest fans of urban and regional economics (or not). Anyway, I promise that the quality of my contributions to this awesome blog will increase. Just have a little faith on me.

A’Hearn B. (2005) The not-so-mighty finance

A’Hearn, Brian (2005) Finance-led divergence in the regions of Italy. Financial History Review, 12/1: 7-41.

After the unification, the Italian South did not catch up with the North, on the contrary they engaged on a divergent path as the per capita income gap increased from 15-25% to 55% in the first 50 years (p.7). This continuing disparity may be explained by the sore state of the southern banks which could have been unable to support and finance local development (finance-led growth argument; p.9). However, initial evidence seems not to support this hypothesis, as the share of the Mezzogiorno in the banking activity of the country was in line with the relative economic weight of the region (p.10).

On the rise and decadence of Detroit (1950-2009)

Detroit, 1950-2009

Time Magazine has an interesting article by Daniel Okrent about Detroit’s fate. What was once known as America’s Arsenal of Democracy and became the fourth largest city in the United States, shows signs of accelerated decay. Unemployment rate is almost 30%, business is all but (almost) shutdown, and the town of Robocop has nothing but a gloomy future. What is relevant in Okrent’s piece is his discussion on the political economy of Detroit’s failure. Populist politicians, overconfident automobile companies and pampered unionized workers intertwined to make of this Michigan city a urban disaster. Check out the pics of Detroit’s remains by Sean Hemmerle. They’re quite scary.

Sessions of the Second Latin American Economic History Congress

Here is the list of preapproved sessions  of the Second Latin American Economic History Congress (CLADHE-II), to be held in Mexico City on February 3-5, 2010. To submit a paper to any of the sessions, you have to go here.

Webshopping

Today, Chris [I couldn’t find his last name] at History of Economics Playground posted a note on a recent seminar in Duke University about Krugman’s article on the state of economics (mentioned here).

Speaking of Krugman, he wrote a small post on the history of contemporary macroeconomics. It’s worth reading if you already read the aforementioned article.

And here’s a Short History of Small Times in Wall Street by David Silver, former president of the Investment Company Institute (1977-1991), on the legality of the profits of reducing the time invested in buying and selling stocks.

Web shopping: On Krugman and Expedición 1808

Ben, Olivier and Bob

Disclaimer: Sorry about the delay in completing this post (holidays and tons of work impeded its prompt publication).

Here’s an article by Paul Krugman on the state of economics and the failure of most mainstream economists to imagine the worst-case scenario (i. e., the world financial crisis of 2008 and the Great Recession of our days). Here are some reactions of Krugman on the reception of the piece in the blogosphere. And here’s a great post by Beatrice Chérrier at History of Economics Playground exploring Krugman’s ambiguities on the methodology of macroeconomics.

Now, on to diminishing my credibility. Here are the ads of the TV show I am part of. The feature was recorded in the first semester of 2008.  It will run on Saturdays and Tuesdays at 19 h in NatGeo, the National Geographic channel covering from Tijuana to Ushuaia. I have not heard enough reactions to the show to have an statistically significant image of what people think about it (so far partiality prevails) If you live in the Western hemisphere and have the chance to watch it, I’ll be more than glad to hear your comments on my unexpected debut in television.

On developed and emerging economies, 1970-2050

The World Economy, 1970-2050

Here’s a neat visualization by Joe Swainson on the size and position of developed and emerging economies in the world, from 1970 to 2050, as measured by GDP.

Found via Visualizing Economics.

This week in Economic History (August 31-September 5, 2009)

From August the 31st to September the 4th, there will be a Summer University in Greece on History, Philosophy and Economic Thought.

From Wednesday to Friday, the 41st UK History of Economic Thought Conference will take place at the University of Manchester.You can contact Terry Peach for more information.

The 8th Conference of the European Historical Economics Society will take place on Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th. The Conference is organized by the European Historical Economics Society, and is chaired by Marc Flandreau in the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, in Switzerland.

And well, on to some personal advertising. On Saturday the 5th (a day after my 25th birthday!), a TV show where I participated, Expedición 1808, will air in the National Geographic Channel in Latin America. Expedición 1808 is a “one-of-its-kind show, following the journey [expedición] of seven Mexico City youngsters in seven Hispanic American countries, to determine the path and relevance of ideas that gave birth to the independence wars of the 19th century” [taken from the press brief].

Out of the official aim of the show, I will talk about some aspects of economics and economic history: from sugar production nearby Caracas to smuggling and free trade inValparaíso, then and now… Here’s an advance of the show.

Stay tuned for news on web broadcasts…

On [growing] American inequality

How much household income has received the top 0.01% of Americans since 1913?
Here‘s a graph in Paul Krugman’s blog showing it.

The richest 0.01% individuals in America and their income

The graph was made with the tables and figures updated to 2007 prepared by Emmanuel Saez, Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and the most recent winner of the John Bates Clark medal.